Pentagon pushes bunker-buster bomb back 6-months; Cordesman's conflict scenarios

 A "bunker buster" bomb, with more than 10 times the explosive power of its predecessor, has been rescheduled for availability by the United States December 2010, six months later than previously scheduled, the Defense Department told Reuters on Friday.

Military analysts doubt Israel could disable Iran's nuclear facilities in a raid even with dozens of aircraft. Tehran has had years to build covert facilities, spread elements of its programs and develop options for recovering from an attack."Strong as Israeli forces are, they lack the scale, range and other capabilities to carry out the kind of massive strike the U.S. could launch," Anthony Cordesman, a former Pentagon strategist now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, wrote in September. (Reuters)

An Illustrative Scenario Analysis
By Anthony H. Cordesman

Nov 19, 2007 - The attached briefing provides the material used in a scenario analysis and interactive game that looks at some of the consequences of a future nuclear exchange between Israel and Iran, and the possible impact of its expansion to cover targets in Syria, Egypt, and the Gulf.
There is no way to predict the forces each side will have in the future, or how they might target those forces and use them in war. It does seem clear, however, that both sides would probably be forced to target the other's population centers in any scenario that escalated beyond an initial demonstrative strike.
It also seems likely that such a conflict would quickly become existential in the sense that both sides would seek to inflict the maximum possible casualties on its opponent, and to destroy its ability to recover as a nation.