At Salem Media's TownHall in Southern California, Steve Hilton explains his six-million-vote strategy, challenges conventional polling and urges Republicans to embrace ballot harvesting.
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| Steve Hilton addressed Salem Media's TownHall in Pasadena, CA |
PASADENA, Calif. - Republican gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton believes he can overcome California's Democratic advantage by mobilizing millions of voters who ordinarily skip midterm elections, attracting disaffected Democrats and embracing ballot-collection tactics more commonly associated with his opponents.
Speaking September 26 at Salem Media's AM 870 The Answer TownHall, Hilton told an audience at Pasadena's Ambassador Auditorium that he estimates approximately six million votes could be enough to win the governorship. Donald Trump received roughly 6.1 million votes in California in 2024, a number Hilton believes offers a path to victory if Republicans can substantially increase their midterm participation.
In an onstage interview with KRLA's Jennifer Horn, Hilton also challenged polls showing Democrat Xavier Becerra ahead by more than 20 points, arguing that surveys anticipating greater Republican turnout reveal a considerably narrower contest.
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| Jennifer Horn interviews candidate, Steve Hilton, before TownHall audience in SoCal |
Are California's Polls Misreading the Electorate?
Steve Hilton acknowledged that established surveys show him trailing Becerra by approximately 20 to 22 percentage points. But he questioned whether the polling organizations' assumptions about likely voters adequately reflect the current political climate.
"The result that you get depends on the assumptions that you put in," Hilton told Horn.
He specifically challenged the turnout models used by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) and UC Berkeley's Institute of Governmental Studies.
According to Hilton, other surveys using assumptions of greater Republican participation have shown Becerra's advantage shrinking to approximately eight to ten points.
"Now that's still behind. I want to be honest. We know it's an uphill battle," Hilton acknowledged. "But that is a gap that we can bridge."
His contention is that dissatisfaction with California's cost of living, housing, taxes and governance could produce an electorate that traditional models underestimate.
The polling evidence nevertheless presents a substantial challenge. A September 15 PPIC survey showed Becerra leading 60% to 38%, while a Berkeley IGS/Los Angeles Times poll published September 24 found Becerra ahead 58% to 33%.
Those surveys do not establish the final election outcome, but neither does Hilton's criticism of turnout assumptions establish that the polls are inaccurate.
Steve Hilton's Six-Million-Vote Calculation
Mr. Hilton then offered the audience a numerical argument.
Based on his campaign's estimates of participation in recent California elections, he believes approximately six million votes could be sufficient to win the governorship.
He pointed to Donald Trump's performance in California during the 2024 presidential election.
"In 2024 in California, without campaigning here or spending money here, President Trump got 6.1 million votes," Hilton said.
The California Secretary of State confirms Trump received 6,081,697 votes.
Hilton's argument is that Republicans do not necessarily need to create millions of new supporters. Instead, they need to persuade existing Republican voters, particularly those who vote in presidential elections but skip midterms, to participate.
He urged attendees to identify friends, relatives and coworkers who might otherwise sit out the election.
"If every single person here brings one other person who's a Republican already who wasn't going to vote," he argued, the potential impact could be considerable.
But Trump's 2024 vote total is not itself a forecast of Republican turnout in November. California's electorate and participation patterns can differ considerably between presidential and gubernatorial elections.
A Republican Case for Ballot Harvesting
Perhaps Hilton's most unconventional recommendation came when he described an encounter with a supporter at a campaign event in Lancaster, Calif.
A woman arrived carrying numerous completed ballots, he recalled, explaining that she had organized a pizza party where friends gathered with their mail ballots and arranged for her to deliver them.
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| Following their interview, host Jennifer Horn joins audience applauding Steve Hilton |
Hilton presented the gathering as an example of how ordinary supporters could increase participation without waiting for a professional political organization.
"That is called ballot harvesting," he told the audience.
Then came his challenge to fellow Republicans:
"Why should we let just the unions and the activists and the Democrat nonprofits do ballot harvesting? Let's do it as well."
The anecdote marks an interesting strategic departure from Republican criticism of organized ballot collection.
California law permits a voter to authorize another person to return a completed mail ballot, subject to restrictions, including a prohibition on payment based on the number of ballots collected.
Hilton's account did not establish how many additional votes resulted from the Lancaster gathering. But it illustrated his willingness to encourage Republicans to use an election practice he believes their opponents have exploited more effectively.
California's Cost of Living Becomes a Moral Argument
Earlier in his presentation, Hilton had framed the gubernatorial contest as something more consequential than a dispute over taxes or spending.
He promised to eliminate state income taxes on the first $150,000 of income, pursue $3-per-gallon gasoline, reduce utility costs and cancel California's high-speed rail project on his first day as governor.
In his subsequent interview with KRLA's Jennifer Horn, Hilton explained why immediate tax relief is his priority:
Yet the most striking portion of his speech involved two Los Angeles businesses.
In South Los Angeles, Hilton said he met the immigrant owners of a neighborhood shoe store who were struggling to compete against nearby sidewalk vendors selling similar merchandise without the overhead expenses of a conventional storefront.
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| Fentanyl abusers around the corner from MacArthur Park near Langer's Deli |
He blamed state policies governing sidewalk vending for creating what he described as unfair competition against business owners who comply with taxes, rents and permitting requirements.
Hilton then turned to Langer's Delicatessen, the longtime Los Angeles institution near MacArthur Park.
He recounted visiting the neighborhood and observing widespread public drug use despite efforts to clean up the area. He also alleged that taxpayer-supported nonprofit organizations were perpetuating the problem by distributing drug-related supplies.
Those allegations about nonprofit activities were not independently substantiated in Hilton's presentation.
For Hilton, the two encounters represented a larger failure of California governance.
"What it tells you is that after 16 years of these Democrats being in charge, the people in this state who do the right thing are punished and the people who do the wrong thing are rewarded."
That, he argued, is the moral dimension of the election.
Can Dissatisfied Democrats Help Elect a Republican?
Hilton's proposed path to victory extends beyond mobilizing Republicans.
He told Ms. Horn that some lifelong Democrats have approached him at campaign appearances to say they are considering voting Republican because they want California to change.
He described those conversations as increasingly frequent, although he acknowledged that such personal encounters are anecdotal.
Many of those voters, Hilton suggested, may never formally become Republicans. His challenge is to win their support without requiring a change in party identification.
His campaign therefore appears to be pursuing two distinct objectives: motivating Republicans who traditionally skip midterm elections, while attracting Democrats and independents dissatisfied with the state's direction.
Whether that coalition materializes remains uncertain.
But Hilton's remarks in Pasadena revealed how he intends to contest a race that conventional polling continues to favor heavily toward Becerra.
His challenge is not merely to convince Californians that their state needs different leadership. It is to persuade enough of them that voting for a Republican can actually deliver it.
